I can understand the idea that if you are in the 1%, the odds of your kids being as successful (relative to others) is less than 50%. The opposite is true if you are in the bottom 50%. To some extent this is just the math of probability.
But it's also true that no matter where your kids end up relative to others, they will likely have any much better life than you because the march of human progress in the modern era is relentless. It is the same reason why almost everyone today lives better than John D. Rockefeller. Is useful to keep that in mind and be grateful for it.
Perhaps the American Dream is just harder to obtain, and to obtain in the same measure, as many from the Silent Generation and the Baby Boom experienced. Maybe they just had it extremely good.
Also, just my experience, but I work in the software industry in startups and it's remarkable to me how often people who have a successful exit _don't_ credit luck as part of it. Just their smarts and hard work. Those were real but man, take an inventory of all of the lucky breaks you got too.
I was struck by the notion that the elite insistence on the role of luck as opposed to hard work was a “luxury belief.” Those who are wealthy often feel guilty about it, and in fact, luck is a factor, thus the stress on its significance. Maybe the role of hard work needs more emphasis, but one risks sounding glib and obtuse.
I have noticed that to be really successful you need to do three things well: work hard; be smart; and be good with people. Hard work is only one only one of those. You can still be quite successful with a subset of those (and that includes me), but to get to the top of your field you need to be strong all three.
My explanation for this disconnect from more of the population over last several years is from a combination of changes:
1. Females pushed into the workforce in mass numbers, and running into a problem where previous male-dominated professions had not been feminized like the education system, and the work pace and outcome-oriented merit system was not a good fit. And at the same time, women that listened to the feminists and pursued a career over family are more unsatisfied, depressed and suffering mental health issues.
2. More females as head of household. The previous has led to females and mothering to dominate and supplanting the old hand-off to the father. Children are more mothered, less resilient and more entitled to being taken care of, instead of growing to an adult that first can take care of him/herself and then a family.
3. Globalism taking a huge bite out of the private economy with respect to working economic opportunity. Immigration too. Wage stagnation conflicted with inflation. The money people were doing better, but at the expense of working-class economic well-being.
4. Smaller families. Children are more coddled, again, by mothers.
5. The feminization of the education system. More mothering. Delayed development of children to adult.
6. Sending too many kids to get expensive by useless college degrees. Not only did the time spent in school just delay their career launch, it put them in more debt and saddled them with an entitlement that they should have it easier and not have to work as hard.
Add it all up and it is that saying... Hard times create strong men that create good times. Good times create weak men that create hard times. We are living in an age of weak men, and a lot of them are female.
Great article, Rob. Two quick comments - the more educated learn that crap in college(or high school). Also, wasn't it racist to ask the cooks if they had cigarettes?! I'm kidding of course but wouldn't be surprised if some Leftists thought it.
I can understand the idea that if you are in the 1%, the odds of your kids being as successful (relative to others) is less than 50%. The opposite is true if you are in the bottom 50%. To some extent this is just the math of probability.
But it's also true that no matter where your kids end up relative to others, they will likely have any much better life than you because the march of human progress in the modern era is relentless. It is the same reason why almost everyone today lives better than John D. Rockefeller. Is useful to keep that in mind and be grateful for it.
Perhaps the American Dream is just harder to obtain, and to obtain in the same measure, as many from the Silent Generation and the Baby Boom experienced. Maybe they just had it extremely good.
Also, just my experience, but I work in the software industry in startups and it's remarkable to me how often people who have a successful exit _don't_ credit luck as part of it. Just their smarts and hard work. Those were real but man, take an inventory of all of the lucky breaks you got too.
I was struck by the notion that the elite insistence on the role of luck as opposed to hard work was a “luxury belief.” Those who are wealthy often feel guilty about it, and in fact, luck is a factor, thus the stress on its significance. Maybe the role of hard work needs more emphasis, but one risks sounding glib and obtuse.
I have noticed that to be really successful you need to do three things well: work hard; be smart; and be good with people. Hard work is only one only one of those. You can still be quite successful with a subset of those (and that includes me), but to get to the top of your field you need to be strong all three.
My explanation for this disconnect from more of the population over last several years is from a combination of changes:
1. Females pushed into the workforce in mass numbers, and running into a problem where previous male-dominated professions had not been feminized like the education system, and the work pace and outcome-oriented merit system was not a good fit. And at the same time, women that listened to the feminists and pursued a career over family are more unsatisfied, depressed and suffering mental health issues.
2. More females as head of household. The previous has led to females and mothering to dominate and supplanting the old hand-off to the father. Children are more mothered, less resilient and more entitled to being taken care of, instead of growing to an adult that first can take care of him/herself and then a family.
3. Globalism taking a huge bite out of the private economy with respect to working economic opportunity. Immigration too. Wage stagnation conflicted with inflation. The money people were doing better, but at the expense of working-class economic well-being.
4. Smaller families. Children are more coddled, again, by mothers.
5. The feminization of the education system. More mothering. Delayed development of children to adult.
6. Sending too many kids to get expensive by useless college degrees. Not only did the time spent in school just delay their career launch, it put them in more debt and saddled them with an entitlement that they should have it easier and not have to work as hard.
Add it all up and it is that saying... Hard times create strong men that create good times. Good times create weak men that create hard times. We are living in an age of weak men, and a lot of them are female.
The American dream is dead. Long live the American dream.
https://www.amazon.com/dp/B00U0C9HKW
I salute you, Rob!
Great article, Rob. Two quick comments - the more educated learn that crap in college(or high school). Also, wasn't it racist to ask the cooks if they had cigarettes?! I'm kidding of course but wouldn't be surprised if some Leftists thought it.