16 Comments
User's avatar
Chris Yabsley's avatar

I tend to think that self-affirmations are less important than proving to yourself that you can do something through action, but they definitely have their place.

As a child, I was always told “to be confident, act confident.” I put this into practice this week when I played a part in settling an 8 million pound claim in my day job. I sometimes believe I don’t deserve to be in the position I’m in, but believing I’m more confident and competent than what I actually am really helped. Obviously humility is important, but a little bit of faith in yourself doesn’t go a miss either.

Another great piece.

Expand full comment
Matt Osborne's avatar

"I haven’t seen any research on whether sex differences exist for enhanced self-appraisals. My guess is that men probably engage in it more than women." My observation is that men reflect more on what women think of them, while women reflect more on how they look compared to other women.

Expand full comment
Graham Cunningham's avatar

An interesting post. On the subject of sexual self-appraisal vs others'-appraisal, I would make this tangential comment on an important "theme that gets very little attention in journalism about romantic and sexual pair bonding – the huge difference between the fortunes of what one might term the More and the Less Desired of each sex..... What always strikes me when I read this kind of journalism is how it is always framed in terms of a generic species called ‘Women’ and a generic species called ‘Men’; as if the perceived asymmetries under discussion are entirely ones BETWEEN the sexes......The huge INTRA-SEXUAL differences between the experiences of pretty women and ‘plain’ ones; and between confident ‘alpha’ males and ‘betas’ – this never gets considered." https://grahamcunningham.substack.com/p/the-less-desired

Expand full comment
EO Wilson Devotee's avatar

"Fake it till you make it," always came easier to me than to my two wives and many other female acquaintances, co-workers, etc. When females routinely overestimate their value or appeal, it is somehow more obvious, and more disturbing than when men do it.

Expand full comment
Grape Soda's avatar

Confidence can literally make you more attractive. Anyone remember Mike Myer’s SNL skit “handsome man”? I wonder if there’s any research on this. I would hypothesize that confidence is the most salient factor in the sexual success of men. After all, confidence signals some other advantage like money or brains.

Expand full comment
Grant Smith's avatar

I definitely do this, but I don't look at it as illusion or self-deception, which I can't embrace in good conscience. I just think of it as factoring a rationally optimistic speculation of my potential into my self-assessment.

Expand full comment
Dr. Paul's avatar

I wonder how this remarkable finding gels with poet Robert Burns: “o would some power the giftie give us, to see ourselves as others see us!”

Expand full comment
Dr. Paul's avatar

It seems to me that he views it as better to see ourselves accurately than having Goethe’s “advantage.”

Expand full comment
Diamond Boy's avatar

I find this author, so very useful and practical. There’s nothing quite like it, and I read all of his stuff. Steady Eddie his contribution to my thinking is very valuable.

Expand full comment
Kyle P.'s avatar

General Phillip de Segur was an officer in close proximity to Napoleon during the entire horrific events of 1812. “Napoleon’s Expedition to Russia” is a first hand account and observations from one of the harshest campaigns in human history. A short and must read with tales of cannibalism. The movie is worth it for the opening scene. Such beautiful photography. The score and battle scenes are amazing. But it’s like reading a book and then seeing the movie. You can never be satisfied with such a dense historical subject. I am just happy it was made because it’s a work at art.

Expand full comment
Tom Grey's avatar

Great note with an excellent balance about slight positive bias. Most people also want to be better than they are, maybe a lot better, so part of their bias is aspirational.

One reason I am so happy with my wife is that she loves as I am but also wants me change a bit to better, in the same ways that I want to change to be better.

After recently tearing my Achilles tendon, because I overestimated what my body can do, it’s good to note the down sides of positive thinking. Being wrong about a mate date, or a job, means not advancing so the cost is small, rejection. Being wrong about what you can physically do can result in injury, or death. Lots of rock climbers and free divers die chasing the extreme sport highs.

Women are more sensitive to rejection than men, so it’s no surprise more men apply for jobs they are, on paper, under qualified for. Maybe the woman’s 1 of 10 vs the man’s 6 of 10 chances of rejection still seem more risky to the woman. It also seems widely true that most advertised jobs have an excess of qualifications required that are not so job relevant, and new hires always need to learn some, or a lot, on the job.

The adjusted photo choosing was very interesting. Tho there are lots of humble folk who look better in real life than most photos; they could improve greatly with a bit of picture posing coaching.

Most entrepreneurs know, in theory, that most startups don’t succeed. Yet they believe, strongly, that they will make their startup work. It’s very good for all human consumers, as we all enjoy technical progress, that so many firms are starting up, thanks to a bit of excess positive thinking. Like those who started substack :)

“Better to shoot for the moon and hit an eagle, than to aim too low.” Perhaps better, more likely to hit, would be to aim and shoot at the eagle directly. Yet perhaps not.

Expand full comment
Lynn Edwards's avatar

I also learned quite a bit at community college, and suspect I got a better education than many selective colleges. Obviously UATX will be different in that it really is hiring you and others who are the really contributing and challenging ideas well, but I would love a future post in more detail, or chapter of your book, in what makes different colleges worthwhile.

Expand full comment
Dan SG's avatar

It goes back to the concept of truth. Also, it is important of what kind of truth is the yardstick - the absolute truth or the relative truth. Two thousand years ago,Pilate asked - What is the truth? Since then, there is a significant struggle to define it despite the definition that preceded the question. Was he confused or he already had his own personal answer based on his own life and position achieved?

Expand full comment
Frank Lee's avatar

"This is consistent with what the psychologist Roy Baumeister has described as the “optimal margin of illusion.” Generally, people believe they themselves are 10-20% better than they really are.

My wife and I stay fit but have good friends that have bad eating habits and don't exercise. We love them the same and are not judgmental. On vacation my wife takes a lot of photos. She did so of our friends who joined us on the trip. She shared the photos with them and they suddenly went dark on us... always had an excuse to decline a dinner or trip. Next time we saw them they had slimmed down. Over dinner and wine the truth came out that they had been so offended by the terrible photos my wife had taken that they were angry. And then it took some time for them to realize that the people in the photos were actually exactly them. And then that motivated them to get healthy. They went from anger to gratitude over her photos.

But that entire episode confirmed this tendency for people to see themselves as better than they really are. I don't seem to have that twitch. I am objective to a fault... never wanting to be THAT guy that thinks he is better than he is in any way. Because doing so basically says that I am too lazy to improve. There are certainly times when I am too lazy to improve, but I want to own it.

In terms of image, you would think there would be an offset consideration for people in how others would perceive of them projecting looks, talent, smarts... whatever... greater than reality. I mean what are they thinking when they doctor their picture or profile on dating cites and then meet in person? Immediately they get tagged with an image of being dishonest and overly boastful. How ugly is that?

Expand full comment
Anti-Hip's avatar

"The Thomas theorem ... One example is believing in a toilet paper shortage. Another is soldiers throwing down their weapons and running away because they believe the battle is lost."

Accordingly, "those who panic first panic best"? Maybe the optimal (upside) margin works either up *or* down, depending on what's at stake -- ironically, and I think relevant here, when others may think more poorly of you (or, of your visible emotional lability, while missing your internal logic).

Take computer security. I'm "paranoid" (see "Only the Paranoid Survive"). So far, the extra time and attention has, I believe, served me fairly well compared to associates. (Also, it seems this applies to "depression realism.") Or, what's the context "dividing line" I'm missing here?

Expand full comment
James F. Richardson's avatar

Since I’m clearly pretty and brilliant and pretty brilliant...I focus my exaggeration on my charms...because I start from zero...anything helps...this is my Sunday confession.

Expand full comment