Avoiding the Hedgehog Trap

• How do you use limited means to achieve aspirational ends? That’s the core idea of On Grand Strategy, a book I discuss during this livestream.

• Why did Mao Zedong say "I like to deal with rightists. They say what they really think—not like the leftists, who say one thing and mean another." I suggest that Mao was able to say this out loud for the same reason that only Nixon could go to China.

• The hidden trap of having a “big idea.” How even good concepts (including my own “luxury beliefs” idea) can become intellectual crutches if you overuse them.

• Foxes vs. Hedgehogs. Isaiah Berlin’s classic essay, Phil Tetlock’s research, and why the best forecasters embrace complexity over rigid ideology. The media loves bold, simplistic thinkers. But history favors those who adapt.

• Holding two opposing ideas in mind while retaining the ability to function.